Week 6 was total. Low-scoring games, poor game flow, and yours truly are a lackluster performance in my picks. I went 6-9 ATS on the slate and just 2-3 ATS with my locks of the week, thanks to being on the wrong side of two major upsets by favoring San Francisco and Philadelphia. Although the Bills won straight, they only scored 14 points as opposed to clearing a two-touchdown spread.
We got lucky on Raiders-Patriots when Max Crosby sacked Mack Jones in the end zone for a safety that allowed Las Vegas to cover the 3. Other than that, we’re excited to head into Week 7. It’s a small slate with six teams, so there’s no room for error. Let’s get to that.
Locks of the week ATS: 16-14
All NFL Odds Via SportsLine Consensus Odds.
The Bills nearly fell victim to a tumultuous weekend in Week 6, but hung on at the last second to beat the Giants. The offense hasn’t looked particularly coherent over the past few weeks, and they’re due for a perfect game, which I expect will come Sunday in Foxborough. New England is a bad football team where everything seems difficult, especially on offense. Its two touchdown drives last week took a combined 27 plays. The Patriots lacked the ability to run Buffalo’s offense at less than 100%.
Projected score: Bills 27, Patriots 13
selection: Bills -8.5
Cleveland’s defense is special. They held 49 players to the fewest yards in any game under head coach Kyle Shanahan, and it wasn’t because of the weather. This season, the Browns are holding opponents to 200.4 yards per game, the fewest through five games by any team since the 1971 Colts. Regardless of who has a center on them, this defense can contain Indianapolis and keep the Browns victorious. With Anthony Richardson on injured reserve, Gardner Minshue will get the start again under center. He is coming off a season-worst performance against the Jaguars with three interceptions and has completed just 61% of his passes in his starts so far. I can’t see him turning any corners against this defense.
Projected score: Browns 23, Colts 17
selection: Browns -2
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo)
It’s easy to say now after Jalen Hurts’ three-interception day in last week’s loss to New York, but Philadelphia hasn’t seen it on more than one occasion this season. On top of the lack of consistency on offense, the secondary is in poor shape, especially as injuries pile up on defense. It’s a bad combination with a high-flying offense like the Dolphins next on the schedule. Miami takes the lead NFL yards per play and yards per pass attempt by significant margins. Tyreek Hill continues to make a legitimate MVP case as he is on pace for over 2,300 receiving yards. Now, he leads a Philly secondary that is allowing 302 passing yards per game at home this season (second-most in the NFL). I like the path of dolphins better than eagles.
Projected score: Dolphins 30, Eagles 27
selection: Dolphins +1.5
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX, Fubo)
Tactfully possible Super Bowl Preview in the 1pm window. While it’s conceivable that these two teams will represent the conferences in February in Las Vegas, the Lions are the better football team, so I’d be more than happy to put a field goal in my pocket with a 3-0 team. In 2023, SU and ATS teams will be playing. The key matchup is Detroit’s offense (No. 4 scoring unit in the NFL) going up against Baltimore’s stout defense. The last few seasons the Ravens have struggled to get the lead, which has me rooting for the Lions offense. John Harbox’s club is coming off a matchup in London where it ran 70 plays (second most this season), so fatigue could also be a factor here.
Projected score: Lions 24, Ravens 20
selection: Lions +3
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo)
Denver’s defense was better than it has been all season in Week 6 against Kansas City, but I wonder if that was more of an outlier than this unit turning a corner. The Broncos now host a Packers team that was able to rest up in Week 6 and fix the rough patches we saw in the first few weeks with self-picking and Jordan Love. If Denver’s secondary looks like it has in the first month of the year, Christian Watson and the other Packers receivers should have plenty of opportunities to rip off chunk plays. As for the Packers, their defense has held opponents to 4.9 yards per play this season, which ranks in the top 10 in the league. Broncos are 0-3 ATS at home.
Projected score: Packers 26, Broncos 20
selection: Packers -1
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The remaining bunch
Jaguars at Saints
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Saints 21
selection: Jaguars +1
Riders on Bears
Projected score: Raiders 23, Bears 17
selection: Riders -3
Commanders in Giants
Projected score: Generals 24, Giants 21
selection: Generals -2
The Falcons in the Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 16
selection: Buccaneers -2.5
Steelers at Rams
Projected score: Rams 26, Steelers 20
selection: Rams -3
Cardinals at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 17
selection: Seahawks -8
Chargers at the helm
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Chargers 24
selection: Principals -5.5
49 on the Vikings
Projected score: 49ers 28, Vikings 20
selection: 49ers -6.5